When will the COVID-19 quarantine end?

When will the outbreak of COVID-19 caused by the new type of coronavirus end? This is the question that the world is wondering about the answer these days.

Now why do we implement this quarantine and how long will it last? this is the question in everyone’s mind. Let’s try to explain this through some mathematical models.

First of all, we need to put forward two theses in order to explain these models.

Vaccine must be found

or

Considering the speed and killing of the epidemic, some 60% to 70% of the society must be immune. So, herd immunity.

There are 2 phases in an outbreak

Isolation

You will crush the head of the snake when it is small so that it does not grow. For this, first of all, the number of infected people in the community will be very low and you will apply the following algorithm so that you can isolate this disease.

Find the patient, test, isolate.

Find patient’s contacts, find them fast enough to prevent them from contacting someone else, even test them and isolate them too.

In order for this system to be applied, considering the possibilities you have, very few patients need to be present. Therefore, this phase unfortunately takes a very short time and when you do not intervene, you do not have the chance to intervene again and you are forced to go to the second phase.

Avoidance

This part is the phase that all the states in the world are currently in. Here, the disease has gone from an endemic to a pandemic, and there are so many patients that you can’t follow and people that you can’t follow. In this case, almost all countries try to reduce the spread of the epidemic by taking similar actions.

What are these measures? home office referrals, closing schools, curfew etc. varies from country to country.

Why are they doing this? they are made so that not everyone is sick at the same time, because if everyone is sick at the same time, you cannot save the people who are likely to recover this time because your health system is not enough. Therefore, we have seen 10% -12% mortality rates in Spain and Italy, while the average virus is 5% in the world. Other countries are taking such measures in order not to be so, so that not everyone is sick at the same time.

Everybody wrote fifty times. If everyone is sick at the same time, you have a very harsh graphic, as a result, many people die. That is why, according to the flattening the curve logic, they say that people do not leave the house. Does it make sense? Yes. But is it sustainable? No? Because when you say don’t leave home in a country, it means that you stop the economy and social relations in that country. This has both an economic and social cost to a country, and the potential of each country to meet it is limited, albeit in large countries. Nobody, my dear citizen, you cannot say that I will give you money forever, the rich country feeds for 10 months, the poor country feeds for 10 days, but the money in the present will be over. So, the real purpose here is a little different for states. Speaking from the point of view of our mathematical model, flattening the curve is logical, but how much we need to flatten has become important.

In this case, if we go back to the math model, we see that one variable plays a very important role in this regard. The name of this variable is reproduction number, that is r0. In other words, it is the value of how many people an infected person transmits on average. If this value is 1, it means that 1 infected person infects this disease on average 1 person. If this value is above 1, it means that the epidemic progresses and if it is below 1, the epidemic is regressed.

When building the model, we also need to recognize the disease and draw the equation of use. For this, we must look at the current results. For example, between 2% and 6% of people suffering from this disease will need intensive care. This is very important information. So the most important thing is that there will be between 2% and 6% people you need to save.

You also need to look at your capacity so that we can sit the model slowly. We will look at the statistics again. How many days did your patients in need of intensive care use that bed / respirator / ventilator? 10 to 20 days. In other words, the person lying in that bed either died or recovered.

Okay, we’ve got a lot of information. When we put them in the model, we should determine such a value of r0 that our hospital capacity does not swell, and we should release this outbreak in such a way that people get infected slowly. So, the problem is this: how many people should be infected on average daily so that nobody stays in the healthcare system but the empty bed. Always go to full capacity. Of course, this optimum case would be impossible, but the aim is to catch the closest values to it. So, we need an effective r0 in our equation.

According to a model made, considering that 2% of patients stay in intensive care and lie on average for 10 days in the best case scenario for Germany, approximately 100 thousand intensive care beds and equipment are required, even in Germany, the current number is 30 thousand. So, we need to find another solution.

What’s the solution?

To reset the system. Because what was it? If the disease was followed correctly, the patient and his contacts were well isolated, we could crush the snake’s head when he was small. What was needed for this, few patients and few contacts.

How do we achieve this?

We block everyone into their house, if these people do not leave their house, nobody can infect anyone. When no one can infect anyone, r0 drops. When r0 drops to a certain level, we keep people under control, then we follow the patient and their contacts super, so the disease does not spread uncontrolled and our hospitals do not swell. This is the system that all states in the world are trying to implement right now.

So, what should we do after resetting the system?

We need to test everyone. Why is that? Because the biggest problem in the system, asymptomatic or low symptom people move very comfortably in the system without thinking that they are sick. The most basic way to prevent this is that everyone learns to act as if they are always sick, and there is no other way.

The state should continue the measures that reduce the r0 value. What are these? Public transport person restriction, mask imperative, concert, fair etc. For now, it is necessary to prohibit a mechanism that will prevent following the sick person or the people they come into contact with.

Being overly transparent to the citizen. In this case, we really have to act for one and all of us. The government and the citizen will be so transparent that the citizen will listen to these instructions without prejudice and take action accordingly.

According to statistics, this story of returning to the first phase lasts about 56 days, even in places that apply full quarantine like Wuhan.

In other words, it seems that this work will continue around April 2021 since you cannot close the door of anyone’s house due to human rights in Europe. In this process, how much citizens of the country comply with the directives of their state will play the main role. So, if a government acts transparently with confidence, it will pass on to its people. Otherwise, if he says that I do not do anything, do not be confused by doing hidden things and do what we say, he will live by paying the price accordingly. This is not a game; it is not the first time in the world. so first of all, make sure to think about realist is the most useful …

So, what will happen as a result of these quarantines?

At the end of these quarantines, the social distance rules will gradually dominate the world for several years. For example, those who are likely to work at home will continue from home. Restaurants will be rearranged, maybe it will be forbidden to sit more than 2 people at a table. Maybe taxis will be like that. The school system will turn into a morning afternoon and teach with half the number of classes. Maybe for some time the planes will run half capacity. But somehow the wheels of this economy will continue to spin only until the countries get 60% -70% herd immunity. Then make sure that nobody cares about these things.

But there is a lottery situation: finding a vaccine

If vaccinations are found, this model collapses and the society gain immunity without being sick. In this case, we can go back to our old life much more quickly.

Source: eksisozluk.com